South Africa's National Evaluation Policy Framework 2025

 Ooh — I missed this.

The National Evaluation Policy Framework 2025, published in February 2026, is worth a read for anyone doing evaluation work in South Africa. Not necessarily because it will revolutionise how we evaluate, but because it gives a useful sense of the definitions, questions and forms of evaluative practice that our national system, and the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation, considers important.

There are some things I particularly like.

First, the framework goes beyond simply listing the familiar evaluation types — diagnostic, design, implementation, outcome, economic, impact and synthesis evaluations. It also deliberately broadens the conversation to evaluative practices and approaches: evaluative thinking in monitoring, evaluative workshops, rapid evaluations, evidence synthesis, institutional reviews, systems thinking, foresight and equity considerations.

I like this. Evaluation is not only something that happens when we commission a formal evaluation. Evaluative thinking can be embedded in monitoring, reflection, strategy and decision-making. And I was particularly pleased to see systems thinking in evaluation explicitly named.

The sustainability criterion is also nicely expansive. It asks the deceptively simple question: “Will the benefits last?” But the definition goes much further than financial sustainability, asking us to consider the economic, social, environmental and institutional capacities of the systems needed to sustain benefits, as well as resilience, risks and trade-offs.

And then there are two criteria we should be rather proud of: Climate and Ecosystems Health (CEH) and Transformative Equity (TE). These are South African additions to the usual OECD-DAC criteria, explicitly bringing environmental systems and systemic inequity into how we judge interventions.

That feels like a genuinely useful contribution from South Africa to evaluation practice.

Source: Based on the National Evaluation Policy Framework 2025 (DPME, 2026). Concept and content selection by Benita Williams; infographic created with ChatGPT/OpenAI.

The word "Sustainability" is a tricky one

I have been thinking about sustainability for a very long time. Long enough, in fact, to write a Master's thesis about it. 

And I think the reason I keep coming back to it is that sustainability sounds deceptively simple. We usually ask something like: Will the benefits last after the programme ends? That is essentially how the OECD DAC frames it too: do the net benefits continue, or are they likely to continue? The newer definition is actually quite useful because it also asks us to think about the financial, social, environmental and institutional capacities needed to keep those benefits going.

But hang on...What exactly is it that we expect to continue? The programme? The activities? The funding? The people? The materials? The way of working? The result? Those are not the same thing.

The sustainability literature makes this distinction too. Sometimes the intervention itself survives. Sometimes particular activities continue. Sometimes a function becomes institutionalised somewhere else. And sometimes the original programme disappears almost completely, but the benefit continues.

I am increasingly less interested in whether the programme survives, and more interested in whether the change survives. Or perhaps survives is the wrong word as well.

What if sustainability involves changing?

This is where systems thinking became useful to me.

In my Master's research I used Stockmann's idea of extended dynamic sustainability. The basic idea is that an intervention enters an existing system. It interacts with people, organisations, rules, relationships, other programmes and whatever else is happening at the time. Then the system keeps moving. So the outcomes we see ten years later do not necessarily look like the outcomes we saw at endline. They may have changed shape completely.

The opposite assumption is slightly odd when you think about it. We introduce an intervention into a changing education system, leave, come back five or ten years later, and then ask whether the thing is still exactly where we left it. Why would it be?

People move. Policies change. Organisations merge. New programmes arrive. Funding disappears. Somebody adapts a tool because the original version no longer works. Someone who was trained moves into a different job and takes the idea with them. Some of that might actually be evidence of sustainability.

In the education case I studied for my Master's, three mechanisms seemed particularly useful for making sense of this.

One was problem-solving. Did the intervention leave people or institutions better able to solve the problem themselves? Another was multiplication. Did the benefit spread beyond the original people or places? And then modelling: did somebody else take the idea, process or structure and adapt it as a useful model?

That work made me think that some of the strongest forms of sustainability may be almost invisible if we only look for the original intervention. A programme may be gone. But the system may have learned something.

Which brings me to the Anglo American Education programme. 

I was lucky enough to work on the evaluation of this programme, alongside colleagues, over a very long period — from 2019 to 2026. Long enough to see different phases of the programme, different implementation models, different schools and Early Childhood Development (ECD) centres, and eventually to go back and ask what had actually lasted.

The programme itself was ambitious. It worked across schools and ECD centres in communities around Anglo American operations, and it tried to strengthen several parts of the education system at once. In the school programme this included teacher development, school leadership, parent engagement, learner support, infrastructure and, later, ICT. In ECD, the support included infrastructure, learning materials, practitioner and centre-manager training and coaching, and support with registration and compliance.

So this was not a neat little intervention where one activity was expected to produce one outcome. And perhaps more importantly for this discussion, it was not a programme that forgot about sustainability and suddenly discovered it in the final six months. Quite the opposite.

The programme thought very carefully about stakeholder engagement, ownership and government alignment. Engagement started before implementation and continued throughout the programme. It involved national, provincial, district, community, school and ECD-level actors. There were Local Management Committees. There was provincial project-management capacity. Issues were monitored. The programme deliberately tried to respond to local context rather than simply roll out a fixed package.

In Phase 2, schools were even asked to opt in rather than simply being selected, precisely because the designers thought greater ownership might matter. So yes, this was a pretty thoughtful design. Which makes what happened later much more interesting.

Because then we went back.

Quite a lot was still there

In ECD, the initial results had been strong. The programme combined infrastructure and materials with practitioner training and coaching, support to ECD managers, and help with registration and compliance. And the child outcomes were striking. The proportion of assessed children who were developmentally on track increased from 38% to 65%, moving from below the national comparison benchmark to above it. When we returned later, many centres were still operating. They were still serving children. Many had retained registration, were receiving subsidies and were still using structured learning materials.

In the Whole School Development work, some of the strongest evidence of sustainment was surprisingly ordinary: reading routines, phonics practices, planning approaches and ways of supporting struggling learners were still being used. And I think there is something in that. Maybe things become sustainable when they stop feeling like programme activities and simply become useful ways of doing the work.

But context kept interfering

Some ECD centres were struggling with delayed subsidy payments. Some were navigating registration changes. Some had become overcrowded. Security was a problem. And this is where I think we sometimes use the word context too casually. We write something like: “The intervention was implemented in a challenging context.” Then we move on. But the context is doing quite a lot of work there.

A registered ECD centre with stable management, enough practitioners and reliable subsidy payments is not receiving the same intervention as a centre with an acting manager, overcrowded classrooms and late payments. The input may be identical. The system around it isn't. And that matters for what gets sustained.

So what does this mean for ECD investment now?

I think this is where the systems view becomes practical rather than philosophical. South African ECD now has the benefit of a more clearly negotiated system direction through initiatives such as the Bana Pele Blueprint. That does not mean every funder should suddenly run the same programme. Please no.

Different organisations should still do different things. One may focus on infrastructure. Another on practitioner quality. Another on registration. Another on nutrition or financing or data. But it helps enormously if they are contributing towards a shared system goal. So perhaps an early programme-design question should be:

Where does this intervention fit in the wider ECD system?

And then:

What problem in that system are we helping to solve? Who else is already working on it? Which existing structures could carry this work later? Are we strengthening them, or quietly building a parallel system next door? And if our particular project disappears in five years' time, what capability will remain? 

I no longer think sustainability means freezing an intervention in place. 

I think it may be much more about what the system has learned to do because the intervention was there. Maybe the programme disappears. Maybe the materials change. Maybe somebody else takes over the function. Maybe the original model gets adapted beyond recognition. If the system is now better able to solve the problem, is this not sustainability?  

Photo by Alina Grubnyak on Unsplash

Someone made me study philosophy of science and now I’m triggered

I cringe a little every time someone talks about creating “one source of truth”.

It happened yesterday at the NASCEE seminar, in a discussion about NED Connect. I heard something similar at Jon Molver’s PULSE event.  More troublingly, a government official used almost exactly the same language when talking about COGTA’s National Strategic Hub. I thought I might be overreacting — until the COGTA slide came up. It literally said: “Our single source of truth.”

Each time, my immediate reaction is: Orwellian. Ministry of Truth, anyone? I know, I know — that is probably unfair.

What people probably mean is something much more practical: Can we please agree on which dataset we are using? They are talking about getting away from multiple spreadsheets, competing numbers, inconsistent definitions and records that nobody quite knows whether to trust. I am completely sympathetic to that problem.

People use words without necessarily thinking through everything they imply. I certainly do. But in the intellectual tradition in which I work, words like truth, evidence, validity and objectivity are triggers. We have spent rather a lot of time arguing about what they mean. So I cannot quite hear “one source of truth” innocently.

A small philosophy-of-science detour

There is a much longer investigation here about my own worldview that I am not going to inflict on you now. The footnote version is this: I also twitch when somebody says “science has proved that…”. In the Popperian tradition I was taught, science is not really in the business of proving things true. It advances by making claims that can, in principle, be shown to be wrong. Theories that survive repeated attempts to falsify them become more credible, but they do not become sacred. That little distinction probably explains quite a lot about why “one source of truth” bothers me.

Science becomes trustworthy not because nobody can challenge it, but because people can. It becomes trustworthy because people can challenge it. 

When a data system is described as the source of truth, I hear something rather more final than I suspect the speaker intends.

And then there is power

This is where my evaluator brain kicks in. Robert Picciotto puts it rather starkly:

“Evaluation is not value-free. It is steeped in politics.”

He also asks whose goals matter, which values are being used to judge merit and worth, and who gains or loses from the methods we choose. Those questions travel quite easily into the world of data systems.

Who decided the categories? What becomes easy to see because it fits them? What becomes harder to see because it does not? Which questions was the system designed to answer in the first place? Every database has to make choices like this. The difficulty comes when the choices disappear from view.

If we map an ecosystem, for example, we may decide to classify organisations by geography, programme area, funding, reach or organisational type. Those may be entirely sensible choices. But over time the structure we designed can start to feel like the natural structure of the sector itself. What is easy to count becomes easier to discuss, and what does not fit neatly into the categories can fade into the background. Perhaps this is where the rather grand word hegemony becomes useful. One way of seeing the world can become so familiar that we stop noticing it is only one way of seeing. 

The danger is that one representation of reality acquires the authority of reality itself. That is the bit that makes me nervous about the word truth. 

This is hardly a new anxiety. In African evaluation, the Made in Africa Evaluation movement has been asking related questions for years about whose knowledge counts, whose categories shape the field, and what happens when one knowledge tradition comes to look universal. Zenda Ofir and Adeline Sibanda’s chapter, Made in Africa Evaluation: Decolonizing the Past, Present, and Future, is a useful entry point.

Somebody still has to make sense of it

There is another reason I am reluctant to hand truth over to the database: Data do not interpret themselves.

Even a very good system still needs someone who understands where the information came from, what the measures can actually tell us, and where apparently comparable numbers are not quite comparable after all. Context matters too. A pattern in a dashboard may be significant. It may also be an artefact of how something was classified, when the data were collected, or who reported it.

The interesting work starts once the data have been assembled. Somebody has to move between the numbers and the real world they are supposed to describe. Somebody has to turn information into a useful account without making it sound more certain than it is.

This is one reason I am not especially worried that dashboards, integrated platforms or AI are going to put evaluators out of work. They may change the work considerably. I hope they do.

If evaluators remain useful, I suspect it will be because we are comfortable occupying that slightly uncomfortable space between evidence and decision-making. We know enough about methods to be cautious about what a number can actually tell us, and enough about context to know when the number is probably not telling the whole story.

And, ideally, we can explain what we see in a way that somebody else can understand.

So who should do the sensemaking?

This is where I make the case for having people around who understand more than the mechanics of data.

You probably want someone who understands the data itself, certainly. But I also want someone who has thought a little about how knowledge gets made, how we decide whether a claim is credible, and when we may be claiming more than the evidence supports.

That may be an evaluator. It may be a researcher, an analyst or somebody else entirely. The label matters less to me than the way of thinking.

Can this person work carefully with evidence without ignoring uncertainty? Can they notice when a clean representation has left something important out or when it is oversimplifying? That is the kind of sensemaking I want sitting next to a powerful data system.

Truth, Beauty and Justice

This brings me back to Ernest House and one of my favourite ideas in evaluation: Truth, Beauty and Justice. I like the formulation because it gives me a much better way to think about what good sensemaking should aspire to.

Truth asks whether the claims we are making can be defended.

Beauty is about whether we can make sense of the evidence and communicate it in a way that helps people see something more clearly.

Justice makes us pay attention to whose experience is represented in that account, and whose may have been left out.

That is probably where I land on all of this. I want the good database. I want the messy spreadsheets sorted out. I want shared definitions and better systems. I just do not want the system itself to become the truth.

Give me good data, and then give me someone who understands what it can and cannot tell us. Make sure they appreciate what it means to make a claim about truth.  Can they also please have the ability to translate the evidence beautifully and care about justice? 

Evaluators may not be out of a job just yet. (At least, not if that is the job we think we are here to do).

Photo by Abdul Ahad Sheikh on Unsplash

Parenting in the age of AI

Our friends at NASCEE recently sent out an invitation to the first seminar on AI in Basic Education, as part of the Lefa AI initiative.

As an evaluator, I am extremely interested in this topic. As a parent of school-going children, I am perhaps even more fascinated by it. Although “fascinated” may not be quite the right word. It is the kind of fascination where you lean in because you really want to see what happens next, while at the same time keeping one hand firmly over your heart in case what happens next gives it a shock.

AI in education raises all sorts of practical questions about teaching, assessment, access and learning. But in our house, some of the questions already feel much more immediate. What should children still learn to do for themselves? When does using AI become a useful extension of their abilities, and when does it quietly remove the struggle through which those abilities are developed? And perhaps most difficult of all: how do we explain to children why they should spend time learning something when a machine can produce a polished version in seconds?

I do not have tidy answers. But watching my own children use these tools has made the questions much harder to ignore.

A few days ago, my youngest showed me an English dialogue she had written for school, and I was genuinely surprised. It was funny. The characters had personalities. The dialogue moved. There was timing and a sense of scene. And she had done it on her own.

I would love to say this came from years of reading. Heavens knows it did not. Reading is an ongoing struggle in our house. My best guess is that she has absorbed enough stories through television and other media to understand, almost intuitively, how characters behave and how dialogue works. That in itself is interesting. We often speak about creativity as though it emerges from nowhere, but of course it does not. Human beings are pattern learners. We absorb stories, rhythms, phrases, gestures and conventions from the culture around us, and then we recombine them into something that feels like our own.

My son presents almost the opposite problem. Writing does not come easily to him, and he is very willing to offload cognitive work. But he is also quite inventive about it. For his school entrepreneur day, he decided he needed a Wheel of Fortune-style spinner for a game, so he used ChatGPT to programme one. He also gets somebody else to prepare accurate study notes, then feeds those notes into an AI system that turns them into flashcards, memory prompts and other study tools.

Part of me thinks: clever. Another part of me thinks: oh dear. Because he may become very good at orchestrating tools without ever becoming very good at writing. What does the future look like? Must he necessarily be good at writing? 

And I am beginning to think that this is where the AI debate becomes much harder when we are talking about children. As adults, cognitive offloading is often sensible. I use a calculator because I already understand arithmetic. I use spellcheck because I can spell well enough to know when it is wrong. I can ask AI to tighten a paragraph because I have spent decades learning how paragraphs work.

But what happens when we offload the work before the underlying capability has been built?

A child learns to write by writing bad sentences, then slightly better ones, then awkward paragraphs, and eventually paragraphs that begin to say what they intended. The inefficiency is not a bug. It is the learning process. AI can remove a great deal of that struggle, which sounds wonderful until we remember that the struggle may be exactly what develops the capability.

So the question is not simply whether my son is “cheating”. It is more uncomfortable than that. What experiences does he still need to have in order to become someone who can think and write for himself? If AI consistently occupies that space before the skill is established, he may become very good at directing writing without ever becoming very good at writing. Those are not the same thing.

And then there is my daughter. What happens when she spends two hours creating something funny and original, only to discover that somebody else can type a prompt into an LLM and produce something equally polished in three seconds? I worry not only about skill loss, but about motivation. Why bother mastering something when the output itself can be reproduced almost instantly?

That question troubles me because creativity is not valuable only because it produces a poem, photograph, song or school dialogue. There is value in becoming the person who can make it. The capability matters. The eye matters. The judgement matters. The satisfaction of being able to do something matters.

She is also becoming interested in photography, and perhaps one day AI will extend what she can create. I do not necessarily object to that. If she develops an eye for composition, light, framing and emotion, AI may become an expressive tool. But if the technology does the aesthetic work before she has had the chance to develop those instincts herself, then something else may be happening.

I increasingly find myself returning to one question:

What human capability is the technology extending, and what capability is it bypassing?

Perhaps that is the distinction I need as a parent. AI after mastery may be an extraordinary tool. AI before mastery may sometimes quietly remove the very practice through which mastery develops.

And unfortunately, “because you still have to learn it first” is going to be a much harder argument to make to our children than it ever was to us.

 

What if you spent five days getting the learning architecture right at the start?

Have you ever developed a project proposal with a slight sense of dread?

You can have a perfectly sensible intervention. A clear set of deliverables. A committed implementation team. You can even deliver exactly what you promised. And still find that very little shifts because the surrounding system does not move with it. I keep coming back to that.

We have become much more interested in systems thinking in the development sector, but I wonder whether we still bring it in too late. We talk about systems when we evaluate programmes, or when we are trying to understand why outcomes did or did not happen. Maybe we should be doing more of that thinking right at the beginning.

The same goes for Theory of Change work. We have known for years that participatory approaches matter in evaluation. When implementers sit together and work through the logic of a programme, the value is not only the diagram they produce. Quite often, the useful bit is the conversation that happens before everyone agrees on the arrows.

Bring the funder into that conversation and it gets even more interesting. You start surfacing expectations, assumptions and constraints on both sides. Sometimes people discover that they have been using the same words to mean slightly different things.

The process matters as much as the diagram.

A Theory of Change is much more useful when the diagram is the record of a good conversation, rather than the purpose of the exercise. And once that conversation gets going, the questions tend to change.

• What problem are we actually trying to change?
• Who else is working on it, and what have they learned?
• What do we think will make a difference, and what has to be true for that to happen?
• What should we pay attention to while implementation unfolds?
• If the programme hopes to influence a wider system, what would we expect to see changing beyond the immediate project results?

And perhaps the question I like most:

What are we genuinely trying to learn?

That is where the Theory of Change starts becoming something more useful. It becomes the beginning of a learning architecture:

Theory of Change → indicators and evidence → learning questions → reflection and reporting → evaluation → adaptation and future decisions.

So how might we do this differently?

One approach we are increasingly interested in is to spend a small amount of concentrated time up front with people who understand the sector, can work practically with indicators and evaluation design, and are willing to ask the difficult questions.

Not only:

“How will we measure whether this worked?”

But sometimes also:

“Should we really be doing this?”

We think five focused days can create useful space for that work. Not five consecutive days sitting in a workshop room. Some of it is better face to face. Some can happen in focused online sessions. And some is technical work between engagements: reading documents, testing the logic, refining indicators, and working the emerging thinking back into the Theory of Change and Learning Agenda.

Days 1–2: Understand what we are dealing with

The first part is really about getting to know the territory. And by territory, I do not only mean the intervention. We want to understand the organisation around it too. What is the strategy? How is long-term progress already being tracked? What does management need to know? What does the Board expect to see? What are the contractual reporting requirements? How strong is the internal M&E capacity? What is the reporting rhythm? How does the organisation actually learn?

Those things matter more than they sometimes appear to. You can design a beautiful framework, but if nobody has the time or systems to collect the information, it is not going to help much. We also want to understand what the organisation means when it talks about systemic change.

• Is the programme mainly expected to deliver a defined set of outputs and outcomes?
• Or is there also an expectation that it should influence relationships, institutions, practice, policy, funding decisions or the behaviour of other actors?

Then we look outside the programme.

• Who else is working on the same problem?
• What are government, funders or civil society organisations already doing?
• Where might there be duplication?
• Where are the gaps?
• Is there somebody the programme should probably be talking to?

We are not pretending that two days gives you a systems map. It doesn’t. But you can learn quite a lot by simply asking who else is working on the problem and what they already know. Sometimes that changes the programme logic quite substantially.

Days 3–5: Work on the Theory of Change, measures and Learning Agenda

Then we get into the technical work. We use whatever already exists. That might be a Theory of Change diagram, a logframe, an indicator matrix, a proposal, a strategy document, a contract — or several of these that do not quite agree with each other. That happens more often than one might hope. The point is not to replace everything. It is to work out whether the different pieces tell a coherent story.

• What is the intended change?
• How is the programme supposed to contribute to it?
• What assumptions are we making?
• What might get in the way?
• Which parts of the logic are reasonably within the programme’s control, and which depend on other actors or on the wider system?

This sounds like quite a technical distinction, but it changes the conversation a lot.

• What are we actually accountable for?
• What are we hoping to influence?
• And what are we still genuinely uncertain about?

I think those are much better questions to sort out at the beginning than halfway through an evaluation. Then comes the other very practical question:

What can we actually measure and report on?

Not what would be lovely to know if we had unlimited time and data.

• What can this programme realistically track?
• Which indicators are meaningful?
• Which are feasible?
• Which ones will somebody actually use?
• And which ones are we collecting because they have somehow always been there?

From there, we can start building the Learning Agenda.

• Some information is needed to manage implementation.
• Some is required for formal reporting.
• Some matters because management or the Board needs it.
• And some questions are worth returning to simply because we do not know the answer yet.

That last category is important. Not every question needs an indicator. Not every indicator needs to be discussed every month. Not every interesting issue needs an evaluation. And not everything worth learning can be reduced to a number. We also need to decide how the learning will actually happen.

• What gets discussed regularly?
• What belongs in a formal report?
• What should trigger a deeper conversation?
• Where would a deliberate Learning Moment help?
• What might need a more rigorous evaluation later?
• And how will what we learn actually feed back into decisions?

That, for me, is the point.

The result should not be another MEL document that sits on a shared drive. It should be a shared understanding of what the programme is trying to change, what it can reasonably be held accountable for, what sits outside its control, and what everybody wants to keep learning while the work unfolds.

Five days will obviously not solve everything. But I suspect five good days at the beginning can save a lot of confusion later. And perhaps more importantly, they can get some of the difficult questions onto the table before the programme architecture hardens around them.